Many fans expect The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to jump over the box office predictions for the upcoming sequel. Last week, we laid out the case for why the film is looking like it will not achieve the same success as Illumination’s first Super Mario movie in 2023, mainly due to the novelty of the original film luring curious casual viewers to see it in theaters. It’s still projected that this follow-up, which releases on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, will still be a blockbuster that is likely to go past the $160 million mark for its domestic opening weekend and will eventually cross the $1 billion mark at the global box office over its full run. But many think that the expert projections for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie are lowballing its opening success, and they are putting their money on it.
Bets have Super Mario Galaxy overperforming at the box office
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is expected to earn over $180 million at the box office in its 5-day domestic opening weekend, according to a bet on Polymarket that has over $160,000 in the pot (as of March 23).
Just 8% of betters think that the film will earn less than $160 million, and the percentages only rise from there as the numbers go higher. 13% think it will amass $160M to $170M, 13% for $170M to $180M, 23% for $180M to $190M, 20% for $190M to $200M, and a surprising 26% for over $200M. This means that the majority of the bet has the film going over the $180M threshold, with a very thin majority thinking that it will smash expectations at over $200M.
These bets go past the lower projections set by several publications. Deadline predicted on March 12 that the film would earn over $160 million in its opening stretch, though the outlet admitted that its estimation was “being conservative.” This is despite noting that the film is “best in first choice with guys under 25 but strong across the board” when compared to the live-action Lilo & Stitch, A Minecraft Movie, and the first Super Mario Bros. Movie.
Meanwhile, the analytical site BoxOfficeTheory originally projected on March 13 that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie would reach $147 million over the same time period, but the outlet later revised this estimate in its latest report on March 20. It has since increased its prediction to $160.5 million, reasoning that “the market for kid-driven, family films appears to be in a healthy state here in early 2026” given the success of Pixar’s Hoppers. While pre-sales for the movie are still below similar totals for its predecessor, the report believes that the higher cost for a movie ticket over the last three years will drive totals higher and the inclusion of the popular dinosaur character Yoshi will be enough of a draw for Super Mario fans.
From a bird’s-eye view, though, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will very likely be another hit for Illumination, Nintendo, and Universal Pictures regardless of how it compares to the first film. The production budget for the film is expected to be around the same $100 million, meaning that it will only need to cross the $250 million mark to break even. This is a benchmark that could be smashed within a few weeks of the movie’s release.
In another feather in its cap, the film won’t have any major competitors until late April, giving it several weeks of space to build its box office totals. A24’s The Drama releases on April 3, You, Me & Tuscany lands on April 10, and Lee Cronin’s The Mummy comes out on April 17, all of which are expected to earn somewhere between $15 million to $25 million in its opener. Near the end of the month, the music-driven biopic Michael could draw some viewers away, while The Devil Wears Prada 2 is building momentum as another much-anticipated sequel. That said, these two films are not in the same genre as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, so the impact on its box office run will be limited.
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