The upcoming superhero blockbuster Supergirl is expected to have an uphill battle to be profitable given an early box office prediction. Directed by Craig Gillespie, this second film in the James Gunn-led reboot of the DC Universe (DCU) stars House of the Dragon’s Milly Alcock as Supergirl, otherwise known as Kara Zor-El, after she made a quick cameo in David Corenswet’s Superman. As the latest trailer for the highly anticipated movie reveals, the Kryptonian cousin of The Man of Steel is party-hopping from planet to planet with her superdog Krypto when Krem space pirates shoot the pooch with a poison, leading her to find them for the antidote while meeting the alien bounty hunter Lobo (Jason Momoa) along the way. While Supergirl has slowly gained momentum over the last six months, it will need to compete against a stacked theatrical calendar in the summer when it releases on June 26, 2026 in the US.
Supergirl faces a lot of competition from other summer blockbusters
Supergirl is projected to earn $47 million to $65 million in its domestic opener from June 26 to June 28, 2026, and between $107 million and $181 million through its full domestic run at the box office.
This prediction comes from a May 22 report from BoxOfficeTheory (numbers come via the r/boxoffice Reddit). For comparison, 2025’s Superman had a domestic opener of $125 million and made a total of $618 million worldwide, with a combined $354 million domestic and $264 million international haul. The production budget for the Gunn-directed film was at a lofty $225 million, meaning that it needed to make over $562 million to break even, if we follow the rule that blockbusters need to accumulate 2.5 times its budget to make a profit. Superman was only able to become a box office success near the tail end of its global theatrical run, a pattern which could repeat for Supergirl.
While the budget for Supergirl has not been officially disclosed, it’s been estimated to be between $170 million and $200 million. The $200 million number comes from a December 2025 feature from Forbes, while the $170 million number is a ballpark figure from a May report by Puck. If we’re generous and take the low number here, that means Supergirl will need to cross the $425 million mark to break even. Even if the film earns the higher end of $181 million domestically and is optimistically able to match that number internationally (Superman had a lower international total compared to its domestic one), it still wouldn’t be enough to meet that threshold.
That said, a lot can change in a month, especially if the pre-sale numbers for Supergirl show strong momentum. Solid reviews from critics and fans would provide positive word-of-mouth too. While “superhero fatigue” remains a concern, the film has about a month of being the only DCU or MCU superhero movie on the calendar before Spider-Man: Brand New Day comes out on July 31. The movie’s official teaser trailer in December has over 24 million views on YouTube, while its March trailer has already surpassed that number with 27 million views, suggesting that it’s generating more interest as we get closer to its debut.
However, Supergirl could struggle to stand out among stiff competition. The superhero film comes out two weeks after Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi film Disclosure Day (June 12) and only one week after Toy Story 5 (June 19), which is predicted to have a domestic opener of $130 million to $160 million. That’s nearly three times as Supergirl’s, and it will likely pull many casual moviegoers in its second week. Only five days after Supergirl releases, Minions & Monsters comes out on July 1, and then two weeks later, it will face Disney’s live-action Moana on July 10. While Supergirl landed in ninth place in Fandango’s fan survey on the most anticipated summer movies in 2026, Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters all ranked higher on the list.
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