The upcoming action film In The Grey starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Henry Cavill has received a worryingly low box office projection. This is surprising given the fanbase for both actors and the movie being directed by Guy Ritchie, who is generally favored by critics. The action thriller features Gyllenhaal and Cavill as a secret team of agents who is tasked with reclaiming a billion dollars that was stolen from a despot. That said, the film’s production woes, release date delays, and relatively thin marketing are a few reasons why In The Grey looks like it won’t be going out with as much of a bang as it would have hoped. The film is slated to release in the United States on May 15, 2026.
Why Guy Ritchie’s action flick In The Grey has a low box office prediction
In The Grey is expected to earn somewhere in the range of $6 million to $11 million in its domestic opener based on a report from analytics site BoxOfficeTheory. However, a separate long-range analysis from BoxOffice Pro on April 17 has the film only getting $4 million to $7 million during that period instead.
The latter report compares this box office prediction to the domestic openers of other similar films, like Michael Bay’s 2022 heist film Ambulance that starred Jake Gyllenhaal and earned $8.6 million, and Guy Ritchie’s 2024 movie The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare that also starred Henry Cavill and amassed $8.9 million. To compare these figures with other action flicks that released in 2026, Amazon MGM Studios’ Crime 101 earned $14 million in its domestic opener while Jason Statham’s Shelter, which is produced by In The Grey’s Black Bear, raked in $5.5 million in its domestic weekend.
It’s unclear what the production budget is for In The Grey. Similar films from Guy Ritchie over the past three years have had a mid-sized budget: The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare cost $60 million, Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant cost $55 million, and Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre cost $50 million. So it would be reasonable to believe that In The Grey had a budget within that range, which, if true, would mean that the film would need to earn somewhere between $125 million and $150 million to break even. That might be tough if its current box office projections continue to hold.
In The Grey has had a bumpy road to release to say the least. Filming actually took place three years ago within a few months from September to October 2023. Lionsgate purchased the rights to distribute the film in America and scheduled it to release in January 17, 2025, but it quietly removed In The Grey from its release calendar several months before its intended debut. While Lionsgate is still managing the film’s digital and pay-TV distribution, this forced Black Bear to secure its domestic theatrical rights themselves. At the time, it moved the release date forward by over a year to April 10, 2026, before pushing it back one more time to May 15.
Unfortunately, this has placed In The Grey in a theatrical minefield as May 2026 is chock full of blockbusters. In addition to The Devil Wears Prada 2 that comes out on May 1, the film is uncomfortably sandwiched between the martial arts flick Mortal Kombat 2 starring Karl Urban that releases on May 8 and then The Mandalorian & Grogu on May 22. Those last two movies, as male-driven action flicks themselves, will directly compete with In The Grey, so it unfortunately has the chance of being buried.
On a good note for Henry Cavill, the trailer for the film has caused fans to call for The Witcher star to become the new James Bond. However, the latest rumors have Callum Turner, Jacob Elordi, Harris Dinkinson, and Aaron Taylor-Johnson in the lead for the iconic role.
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